Leveraging Hydrologic Models to Improve Proxy Flow Reconstructions

Posted by Jim Stagge on December 09, 2024

Poster: Link to the abstract

Presentation Overview

I'm excited to share that I will be presenting at this year's AGU Fall Meeting 2024. Our work explores how integrating hydrologic models can enhance the reconstruction of streamflow from tree-ring data, offering both improved predictive skill and deeper process-based insight into hydroclimate variability.

Tree-ring based streamflow reconstructions have long been a powerful tool for understanding pre-Industrial hydroclimate variability. Traditionally, these reconstructions use statistical regressions between regional tree-ring anomalies and streamflow, often simplifying complex hydrologic dynamics. In our study, we evaluate how incorporating simulations from the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) can improve reconstruction fidelity by aligning proxy records more closely with relevant hydrologic states, such as capillary zone moisture.

Across six U.S. regions, our findings show that simulated soil moisture metrics display stronger and more seasonally coherent correlations with tree-ring chronologies than precipitation or total streamflow alone. This approach opens the door to not only better reconstructions, but also a refined understanding of uncertainty and new strategies for proxy collection.

Why It Matters

By moving beyond correlations and leveraging process-based hydrologic models, we can more accurately reconstruct the full range of historical hydrologic variability—critical for informing long-term water resources planning.

Stop by

If you’re attending AGU 2024, stop by and say hello.

See you in December!

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